Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Fiscal risks and sustainability report in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.

In the few years since the ‘once in a century’ shock caused by a global pandemic, rising health-related economic inactivity from 2020, energy prices from 2021 and interest rates from 2022 have placed further pressure on an already-challenging outlook for the public finances – pushing public debt above 100 per cent of GDP and the…

The Chancellor has approved the appointment of Baroness Hogg and Dame Susan Rice as non-executive members of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Sarah Hogg and Susan Rice have been appointed to continue the work of the oversight board and audit committee as Sir Chris Kelly and Bronwyn Curtis CBE complete their final terms over the…

Public sector net debt stood at 100.1 per cent of GDP in May 2023, topping 100 per cent of GDP for the first time in 62 years. Borrowing in the first two months of 2023-24 totalled £42.9 billion, almost double the same period last year and £2.1 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our…

Andy King will step down as fiscal expert on the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee following the conclusion of his five-year term at the end of August. Andy joined the OBR in 2013 as Chief of Staff and was appointed to the BRC in 2018. Before that, he worked in the Treasury in a variety of…

We have published our latest long-term assumptions, consistent with the forecast in our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). These economic determinants that underpin our long-term fiscal projections are used by organisations inside and outside government to inform their own long-term modelling.

Borrowing in April 2023 of £25.6 billion was £3.1 billion above our March 2023 forecast profile – thanks to both slightly lower-than-expected receipts and slightly higher-than-expected spending – and almost double the £13.7 billion figure from a year ago. This year-on-year increase largely reflects higher inflation pushing up spending on debt interest payments (£3.1 billion…

Our latest report on Fiscal risks and sustainability (FRS) will be published on Thursday 13 July. The 2023 FRS report will focus on three current pressures on the public finances: Inactivity and health, where we will consider the role of health in explaining the recent increase in labour market inactivity, analyse its impact on tax…

We have published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2023-24, consistent with our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook, below and alongside our monthly commentary on the public finances.

Several of the UK’s tax bases are directly linked to activities that generate greenhouse gas emissions, with others indirectly linked. So as emissions fall as the UK transitions to net zero, receipts generated from these emissions-linked taxes will be affected. In this working paper, we conduct an initial, high-level analysis to explore the proportion of…

In November 2022, in Briefing Paper No. 8: Forecasting potential output – the supply side of the economy, we described the framework we use when assessing whether and how to incorporate the impact of policy measures on our forecast for potential output (the ‘supply-side’ of the economy). We have applied this framework in our November…

The initial full-year estimate of government borrowing in 2022-23 is £139.2 billion, an £18.1 billion increase on the 2021-22 figure but £13.2 billion lower than our March forecast. This difference was driven by central government spending (£8.1 billion lower than forecast), local authorities net borrowing (£3.2 billion below forecast) and public corporations net borrowing (£6.9…

Since the publication of our March 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we have received requests for further information on our CPI inflation categories and wholesale electricity price forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the March 2023 EFO page.    

The Office for Budget Responsibility established an advisory panel of leading economic and fiscal experts in 2011 to help develop and scrutinise its work programme and methods. Since the establishment of the panel, we have held regular meetings in which we have discussed the content of each of our core publications, as well as the…

Government borrowing in February 2023 was £16.7 billion, up £9.7 billion on last year, largely thanks to spending on energy schemes. Year-to-date borrowing of £132.2 billion is up £15.5 billion (13.2 per cent) on last year. But it is only up £6.9 billion (5.9 per cent) on a like-for-like basis (correcting for student loans figures…