"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
23 February 2026
Our latest Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) will be published on 3 March. It will set out forecasts for the economy and the public finances. This EFO will be published on the HM Treasury website once the Chancellor’s statement is complete. Supporting material and detailed forecast tables will be available on the OBR’s website by…
20 February 2026
The window in which we took average interest rates and market determinants for incorporation into the final pre-measures economy forecast was the 10 working days to 22 January. This window for interest rates in the final pre-measures fiscal forecast was the 10 working days to 30 January. This EFO will be published on the HM…
9 February 2026
The rapid Investigation into November 2025 EFO publication error, published in December 2025, recommended that a deeper examination of recent Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) events be urgently carried out with expert support. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) agreed to carry out this work and its report has been published today: The NCSC report…
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on both our costing of applying national insurance contributions to salary-sacrifice pension contributions, and the fiscal impact of bringing SEND spending into departmental budgets. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on…
Since the publication of our November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received a request for further detail on our funded pensions forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2025 EFO page.
The Chancellor has commissioned the OBR to produce our next forecast on Tuesday 3 March 2026. We will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on that day.
Richard Hughes has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chair of the Treasury Select Committee to submit his resignation as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. His letter of resignation is available below.
The OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) too early on Budget day. We launched an immediate investigation into what happened which has reported today, Monday 1 December. The full report is available below.
OBR Chair Richard Hughes has written to both the Chancellor and the Chair of the Commons Treasury Committee apologising for the fact that the OBR inadvertently made it possible to access the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook too early on 26 November.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we outline our approach to forecasting UK productivity growth. It reviews the UK’s productivity performance from historical and international perspectives as well as the outlook for productivity. The paper also sets out our central forecast and alternative scenarios.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we review our approach to accounting for the supply-side impacts of policy in our forecast. We have taken a more transparent approach to incorporating such effects over the past three years and this paper further adds to that, as recommended in our third…
A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed. We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened. We will be reporting to our Oversight Board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this…
On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. The report is available in English and Welsh. Rhagolwg trethi Cymru – diweddariad Hydref 2025 Rydym wedi cyhoeddi diweddariad i ragolygon trethi Cymru gyda rhagolygon newydd ar gyfer derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a threth…
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first five months of 2025-26 totalled £83.8 billion. This is £16.2 billion above the same period last year and £11.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The overshoot in this month’s estimates compared to our March forecast profile is primarily due to…
We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.
The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.