"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
On 22 December alongside the monthly public sector finances commentary, we will publish an update of our monthly profiles consistent with our November 2020 forecast to provide a reference point against which to monitor incoming data. The monthly profiles will be published on the coronavirus analysis page.
The Chancellor has announced that the Budget 2021 will take place on Wednesday 3 March. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.
Coronavirus has caused our economy to shrink 11 per cent this year – the largest drop in over 300 years. But the economy recovers its pre-virus level by the end of 2022. Support for public services, households and businesses costs £280 billion this year, pushing the deficit to £394 billion (19 per cent of GDP,…
1.1 The coronavirus pandemic has delivered the largest peacetime shock to the global economy on record. It has required the imposition of severe restrictions on economic and social life; driven unprecedented falls in national income; fuelled rises in public deficits and debt surpassed only in wartime; and created considerable uncertainty about the future. The UK…
We will publish our latest set of forecasts and scenarios for the economy and public finances alongside the Chancellor’s Spending Review on Wednesday 25 November. Our most recent estimate of public sector net borrowing for 2020-21 is £372.2 billion. This estimate was published in August and combines our Fiscal sustainability report central scenario and the…
November 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at the Spending Review 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Spending Review policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our November 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have…
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
March 2020 All policy costings presented to the Office for Budget Responsibility at Budget 2020 were scrutinised and were certified as reasonable, central estimates were included in our forecasts. The Government’s Budget 2020 policy costings document briefly describes the methodologies underpinning these costings. In our March 2020 Economic and fiscal outlook we have published an…
The Chancellor has announced the largest sustained fiscal loosening since Norman Lamont’s pre-election Budget in 1992. In the medium term, this takes real day-to-day spending per person back to pre-austerity levels. But the domestic effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the Government’s response to it came too late to include in our forecasts, which are…
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus is likely to have a significant adverse effect on the economy and public finances in coming quarters. But neither the size nor the duration of this effect are possible to predict with any confidence. The Chief Medical Officer has declared that an epidemic in the…