DOI: 10.14466/CefasDataHub.193

Description

This dataset contains spatial projections (.asc files) of biodiversity metrics (alpha, beta and gamma diversity Hill number 0, plus the regional fraction of rare species) for 4 assemblages: zooplankton, phytoplankton, benthos and fish, for years 1993-2099, across the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (Chapter 4 | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis), over the NE Atlantic region (Kristiansen et al. 2024). These projections were made in order to investigate biodiversity change across metrics and assemblages into the future, to demonstrate the shifting baseline of diversity due to climate change. There is one .asc file for each biodiversity metric, assemblage, climate scenario and year. These datasets relate to the manuscript: From plankton to fish: 21st-century redistribution of marine biodiversity and the changing role of rare species, Couce, E. & Greig, L. et al. 2026 (recently submitted).

These projections of biodiversity metrics were made in R using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART, R package bartmachine, Kapelner & Bleich 2016). The environmental predictor layers that varied over time used for the machine learning method of BART were temperature, salinity and oxygen projections (Kristiansen et al. 2024), as well as the standard deviations (s.d.) of the 12 monthly averages per year within a 75km radius. The static predictors used were bathymetry (GEBCO | General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans), shearstress (mean within a 7 year period 1975-1981) and its s.d. (again over the 7 year period) (Burchard & Bolding 2022, Bricheno et al. 2015), distance to coast, and sand, mud and gravel percentages (Wilson et al. 2018). The metrics themselves were calculated using Hill number algorithms applied in a consistent way across assemblages using the iNEXT package in R (Hsieh et al., 2016), where original observations of occurences for the assemblages are from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (Continuous Plankton Recorder: Marine Biological Association. Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey dataset. https://doi.org/10.17031/668cf6b093d22) for phytoplankton and zooplankton, from ONEBenthic (one benthic portal) for the benthos, and Lynam and Riberio (2022) (A data product derived from Northeast Atlantic groundfish data from scientific trawl surveys 1983-2020. Cefas, UK. V1. https://doi.org/10.14466/CefasDataHub.126) for fish.

Contributors

Couce, Elena / Greig, Lily / Engelhard, Georg / Pinnegar, John / Cooper, Keith / Hélaouët, Pierre / Pecuchet, Laurene / Peck, Myron / Lindegren, Martin / Thompson, Murray

Subject

Plankton / Benthos / Fish / Modelling

Start Date

01/01/1993

End Date

31/12/2099

Year Published

2026

Version

1

Citation

Couce, E. & Greig L et al. (2026). Biodiversity metric projections for zooplankton, phytoplankton, benthos and fish assemblages for the NE Atlantic 1993-2099. V1. doi: https://doi.org/10.14466/CefasDataHub.193

Rights List

Open Government Licence

DOI

10.14466/CefasDataHub.193