"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we outline our approach to forecasting UK productivity growth. It reviews the UK’s productivity performance from historical and international perspectives as well as the outlook for productivity. The paper also sets out our central forecast and alternative scenarios.
In this paper, published alongside the November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook, we review our approach to accounting for the supply-side impacts of policy in our forecast. We have taken a more transparent approach to incorporating such effects over the past three years and this paper further adds to that, as recommended in our third…
On 3 September 2025 the Chancellor commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 26 November. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 14 November: Financial market assumptions and the incorporation of outturn data The window in which…
We have published an update to the Welsh taxes outlook with new forecasts for land transaction tax and landfill disposals tax receipts. The report is available in English and Welsh. Rhagolwg trethi Cymru – diweddariad Hydref 2025 Rydym wedi cyhoeddi diweddariad i ragolygon trethi Cymru gyda rhagolygon newydd ar gyfer derbyniadau treth trafodion tir a threth…
An explainer exploring how the fiscal costs of climate-related damage and the transition to net zero could affect the UK’s economy and public finances.
An explainer covering the risks relating to the UK’s public balance sheet.
An explainer exploring three key risks to the public finances from the pension system – rising costs, private saving adequacy and falling demand for gilts.
This morning’s ONS release estimates that borrowing in the first five months of 2025-26 totalled £83.8 billion. This is £16.2 billion above the same period last year and £11.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with our March forecast. The overshoot in this month’s estimates compared to our March forecast profile is primarily due to…
We have published our updated tax and spending ‘ready reckoner’ consistent with our March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook. Our ready reckoner allows anyone to obtain quick, indicative estimates of the fiscal impact of a particular change in one or more economic variables. Read our article on the ready reckoner to find out more.
The Chancellor has announced that the Budget will take place on Wednesday 26 November 2025. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.