"It is the duty of the Office to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances"
Overall, the economic and fiscal outlook is similar to November. While growth has slightly disappointed since then, a steeper fall in inflation and interest rates should support a stronger recovery. Against this backdrop, the Budget announces another 2p cut in national insurance, the cost of which is partly recouped through other tax rises. Public services…
In our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), we analysed the economic impacts of the Government’s cuts to NICs and allowing full expensing of some business investments. We have published two papers providing further detail on the modelling behind our analysis below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Forecast timetable On 27 December 2023 the Chancellor announced that the Spring Budget 2024 will be held on Wednesday 6 March and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below. Update on 23…
Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for information on our estimates of the number of individuals whose conditionality group will be different as a result of the work capability assessment (WCA) reforms. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November…
The Chancellor has announced that the Spring Budget will take place on Wednesday 6 March 2024. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day. Economic and fiscal outlooks
Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our deposit rate forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Since the publication of our November 2023 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we have received requests for further information on our electricity price forecast, National Living Wage assumptions and additional taxpayers by tax rate band. We have published this new supplementary forecast information below and on the November 2023 EFO page.
Richard Hughes distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
On 5 September the Chancellor announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will be held on Wednesday 22 November and commissioned us to publish our latest outlook for the economy and public finances that day. We have now agreed the timetable for the forecast process and published the detail below.
The Chancellor has announced that the Autumn Statement 2023 will take place on Wednesday 22 November. Our latest outlook for the economy and public finances will be released on the same day.