Copied to clipboard

How to create a deterministic forecast

For a deterministic forecast value, the 50th percentile, or median, may be used, which is the percentile which is, on average, closest to the observed value and hence provides the best deterministic-like forecast of the percentiles. This approach can be useful for presenting forecast values in a clear format, suitable for a webpage.

Steps to take

  1. Download Met Office Site-Specific Blended Probabilistic Forecast data for the desired weather parameters (e.g., cloud cover, temperature, etc.).
  2. Extract the 50th percentile (median) from the range of percentiles provided.

Considerations

Note that whilst a median can be used to provide a deterministic site forecast, if instead looking at data that represents spatial variation, e.g. gridded data, this is no longer the case for some diagnostics. For example, a 50th percentile gridded precipitation field does not show the spatial variation that would be expected, with some areas receiving heavier and others lighter precipitation. A 90th percentile gridded precipitation field may make it appear that all areas will receive significant precipitation all at once.