How to create a deterministic forecast
For a deterministic forecast value, the 50th percentile, or median, may be used, which is the percentile which is, on average, closest to the observed value and hence provides the best deterministic-like forecast of the percentiles. This approach can be useful for presenting forecast values in a clear format, suitable for a webpage.
Steps to take
- Download Met Office Site-Specific Blended Probabilistic Forecast data for the desired weather parameters (e.g., cloud cover, temperature, etc.).
- Extract the 50th percentile (median) from the range of percentiles provided.
Considerations
Note that whilst a median can be used to provide a deterministic site forecast, if instead looking at data that represents spatial variation, e.g. gridded data, this is no longer the case for some diagnostics. For example, a 50th percentile gridded precipitation field does not show the spatial variation that would be expected, with some areas receiving heavier and others lighter precipitation. A 90th percentile gridded precipitation field may make it appear that all areas will receive significant precipitation all at once.