Long range forecast
Monday 6 Jul - Wednesday 15 Jul
High pressure will dominate across England and Wales into next week, likely extending its influence across more on the northern UK with time. This will bring dry and warm conditions with plenty of sunshine for most. Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably see more cloud at first, with periods of rain at times. Through next week though the high pressure may extend northwards to bring periods of drier and warmer weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Winds will be light to moderate for most, though stronger around northern hills and coasts near low pressure systems. Temperatures becoming widely warm, perhaps locally hot in parts of the southeast, although not as hot nor humid as seen in the past week.
Thursday 16 Jul - Thursday 30 Jul
From mid July, high pressure is more likely than low pressure, bringing a greater chance of settled and drier conditions. Occasionally this dry and warm weather could be interrupted by outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, which will be more probable in the north or west. As is typical for the time of year, there is a risk of heavy, thundery showers during any warm spells. These conditions are likely to persist through to the end of July, with unsettled interruptions perhaps becoming more common, but confidence at this range is low. In any case, temperatures are likely to be above average overall, with a greater than normal chance of hot conditions developing at times, especially in the south.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).