Seriousness

Absence / presence of protective factors

Imminence

Risk Classification / Definition for MAPPA

Presents an ongoing risk of committing an offence causing serious harm

Pervasive risk and a lack of protective factors to mitigate that risk

More than likely to happen imminently. Requires long-term risk management to contain the risk (including long-term treatment). Will happen if controls are absent.

Very High

There is imminent risk of serious harm. The potential event is more likely than not to happen imminently and the impact would be serious

Offender has a history of causing serious harm and remains capable of causing serious harm.

In a very small number of cases, the offender may not have a proven offence history of causing serious harm, but there is evidence of risk factors and/or previous or current behaviours that indicate a propensity to cause serious harm.

There are insufficient protective factors to mitigate that risk. The offender evidences a capacity to engage with risk management strategies and/or comply with treatment. May have some capacity to self-risk manage

Ongoing risk which will / could increase if protective factors 'fail', are absent or diminish. Protective factors require maintenance and support.

High

There are identifiable indicators of risk of serious harm. The potential event could happen at any time and the impact would be serious

May have caused serious harm in the past, but a repeat of such behaviour is not probable

In a very small number of cases the offender may not have a proven offence history of causing serious harm, or current evidence of risk factors. Previous or current behaviours may indicate that there may be a propensity to cause serious harm, however the likelihood of such behaviour is not probable and is not imminent.

Will co-operate with risk management strategies and/or comply with treatment. Some capacity to self-risk manage with appropriate support. Presence of protective factors

Not imminent and a repeat offence is 'on the balance of probability' deemed unlikely unless circumstances change.

Medium

There are identifiable indicators of serious risk of harm. The offender has the potential to cause serious harm but is unlikely to do so unless there is a change of circumstances

May have caused serious harm in the past, but a repeat of such behaviour is very unlikely.

The balance of protective factors now substantially outweighs any risk factors. There are no current indicators of risk of serious harm

Not imminent and deemed very unlikely.

Low

Current evidence does not indicate likelihood of serious harm