Understanding Your Level of Risk Guidance

Introduction

This guidance is designed for people facing heightened threats to their personal safety and security. 

These threats may arise from a broad range of groups or individuals, including state-backed actors or terrorists. 

As a high-risk individual, you can use this document to help you assess your level of risk and understand key factors that may increase your vulnerability. It introduces essential elements of a risk assessment but does not provide a scored or quantitative outcome. 

Risk levels can fluctuate over time and are influenced by multiple factors. While it is unrealistic to always remain on high alert, it is vital to avoid complacency. Strike a balance that works for you and make informed decisions that minimise unacceptable risks. 

The steps outlined in this guidance are:

1. Understand threat, vulnerability and risk
2. Understand how and why you might be targeted
3. Assess the threat to you
4. What makes you vulnerable?
5. Calculate your risk
6. What can you do now to reduce your risk?

1. Understand threat, vulnerability and risk

For the purpose of this guidance, the following definitions apply:  

Threat - The intention and capability of hostile actors to cause harm, loss, or damage. Some threats are commonplace and easy to execute, such as online abuse, while others, for example, kidnapping, are 
rarer and require substantially greater capability. 

Vulnerability - The factors that make you more susceptible to harm from a given threat. These may include personal circumstances, behaviours, physical characteristics, or weaknesses in security arrangements that make exploitation by a hostile actor more likely. For example, high public visibility, inadequate cyber security measures, or regular travel to higher risk areas may increase vulnerability. 

Risk - The likelihood of a threat occurring, combined with its consequences or impact. Consequences can range from minor disruptions to severe harm, and loss of life. 

In short:

2. Understand how and why you might be targeted

Everyone faces some level of risk in their lives, but certain factors increase your likelihood of being targeted. Indicators that mean you may be at higher risk include:

• You hold a high ranking or influential position within an organisation, body, or community that may be subject to threat(s) by a hostile actor.
• A hostile actor perceives your work, actions, or views as a significant threat.
• You are a member of a diaspora that is being targeted by a foreign government.
• You have access to facilities, assets, systems, information or bodies that are of interest to a hostile actor.

The threat may manifest itself in different ways (including online or in-person), depending on the hostile actor, and can include for example:

• Surveillance and information gathering - to obtain detailed knowledge about your location, daily routines, and close contacts.
• Cyber operations - which are often covert, low-cost, and widespread. They can be used to gather intelligence, conduct surveillance, spread disinformation, and engage in blackmail.
• Intimidation and harassment - directly or indirectly (e.g. through family members) this could include threatening communications, sanctions, the detention of family members overseas or the use of national arrest notices.
• Disinformation campaigns - could create and share false information about you, with the aim of discrediting you by deceiving or misleading others.
• Recruitment - hostile actors may pose as recruiters or talent agents, approaching you with enticing opportunities, when their real intent is to gather as much information as possible from you.
• Blackmail or coercion - to make you do something you don’t want to do. Coercion might be used to stop you from continuing your activities or a hostile actor may blackmail those around you to provide information or access to you.
• Being physically targeted - this could include being followed, being harassed or damage to your property or even being physically attacked.

The following sources can be used to stay informed about state-sponsored threats and terrorist threats to individuals:

• The National Protective Security Authority (NPSA): www.npsa.gov.uk/personal-safety-and-security-high-risk-individuals
• National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC): www.ncsc.gov.uk/collection/defending-democracy/guidance-for-high-risk-individuals
• ProtectUK: https://www.protectuk.police.uk

3. Assess the threat to you

As a high-risk individual, the types of threats you may face are outlined in the previous section, but how can you determine the level of threat to you?

Key questions to consider:

• Do you feel under threat? What specific evidence or concerns support this?
• Where does the threat originate, and who is likely to target you?
• What types of threats are you facing? (e.g., online, physical, financial).
• Has there been any provocative media coverage (mainstream or social) that could have adverse implications for you?
• Have you received any concerning threats online (e.g., messages, emails, or social media comments)?
• Have you experienced any unusual or suspicious incidents recently? (e.g., signs of surveillance, an unexplained break in, damage to your property or suspicious emails).
• Have you experienced any physical or verbal hostility towards you or those connected to you?
• Are others in similar roles experiencing threats or attacks?
• Have you been informed by the authorities of a threat to you, your associates, or others in a similar role?

Understanding the level of threat to you, and your vulnerability, will help you to reduce your risk.

4. What makes you vulnerable?

Certain factors make you more vulnerable to threats. These include:

• When you’re accessible to the public, either in-person or online.
• When information about you, your home or work address and what you are doing is readily available online.
• Your personal circumstances: including relationships, affiliations, or activities you are engaging in, that may make you a target.
• When you have predictable routines (e.g., daily commutes or schedules).
• When you have a lack of effective security measures online, at home, in the workplace or when you’re out and about.

You may be particularly vulnerable in the following situations:

• Arriving at or leaving your home or place of work.
• Entering or exiting buildings or vehicles.
• Commuting or visiting places when you travel regularly at the same time and use the same route.
• Being distracted (e.g., using headphones or mobile devices, or when you are running late for an appointment).
• When visiting unfamiliar surroundings or attending new events.
• When travelling, particularly to countries where there may be a higher risk to you.
• Becoming complacent or inattentive to your security and/or your environment.
• When unknowingly put under pressure to do something quickly by a hostile actor.

5. Calculate your risk

Your level of risk depends on your exposure and the potential consequences of an attack. For example, someone facing a high threat with strong security measures may be at lower risk than someone facing a lower threat but with no security precautions.

Risk is dynamic, it can change based on your activities, location, or evolving external factors such as geopolitical events. 

Regularly assessing your risk level and adapting your security measures and behaviours accordingly is essential to keeping yourself and those close to you safe.

6. What can you do now to reduce your risk?

Do not wait for an incident to occur. Be proactive in assessing your situation, and act now to reduce your risk. 

Consult NPSA’s Personal Safety and Security webpages for a range of suggestions on how you can improve your personal safety and security now, including:    

Be Alert  
Recognise you might be at heightened risk and pay attention to what you are seeing, hearing and feeling so you can spot the signs of a potential threat arising, and give yourself more choices to avoid risk.

• Try to be unpredictable, varying your routine and timings (e.g. to and from work) to make it harder for those seeking to harm you.
• Learn to spot the signs of suspicious activity and online threats to help to protect yourself and your information.

Plan Ahead 
Protect yourself and your family by improving your home security, protecting your personal information and planning ahead to travel safely and securely.  

• Review security measures in place at your home, including doors, windows, home security systems and Safer Areas.
• Protect information about you including through strong cyber security measures such as using a password manager to store unique strong passwords securely and reviewing your digital footprint to ensure sensitive information about you (including your schedule and activities), your family and your home is not published online.

Know what to do 
Consider various scenarios that could  occur and how you and those close to you should respond.

• If you believe you are in immediate danger or being targeted by hostile surveillance now, contact the police immediately by calling 999. State you are a high-risk individual and why. Provide them with all the information you have and follow their instructions.
• The Anti-Terrorist Hotline (0800 789 321) is used by the public to report suspicious behaviour and information that may relate to terrorism. You can use this hotline to report incidents that are not immediately life-threatening (e.g. if you are receiving online abuse).

Do not dismiss concerns  
If you are worried about your safety but not in immediate danger, do not ignore the risk. Take action and seek support from the police and, if appropriate, your employer.